2020 American Express Draft Kings Report
The PGA Tour has spent the last couple of weeks in Hawaii and this week golfers will spend some time in sunny California at the American Express.
Now, this tournament isn’t like most tour events, as it’s a pro-am tournament and golfers will be playing between three different courses from Thursday through Sunday. The field has 156 golfers and the top 65 and ties will make the cut, after three rounds instead of the traditional two. That’s right, the entire field will play each course once and then the cut will be made after Saturday’s round. With that said, let’s take a look at each course for this contest:
La Quinta: Par 72, measuring at 7,060 yards. There are four Par 5’s, and this is considered the easier of the three courses.
PGA West Tournament Course: Par 72, measuring at 7,159 yards. Again, this course has four Par 5’s with wider fairways than La Quinta so don’t expect the bombers to club down here.
PGA West Stadium Course: Par 72, measuring at 7,113. This course was designed by none other than Pete Dye, who unfortunately passed away last week.
Now, with a brief overview of each course, let’s take a look at some of my favorite plays for the American Express at different price tiers:
$9k+
Sungjae Im - $11,000:
Im is projected to have one of, if not the highest projected ownerships of the tournament at just over 20 percent. With that said, I’m willing to eat that chalk. Over his last 100 rounds, Im is third in SG: P5. He also ranked third in BoB Gained and second in Bogeys Avoided over his last 50 rounds. He finished 21st at the Sony Open last week and he’s one of the favorites this week at 18/1 odds.
Kevin Kisner - $9,900:
Kisner has been on a roll over his last three tournaments with T4, T17, and T7 finishes. He doesn’t have great history at this tournament, but I’m weighing heavily on recent form more than course history because it’s a pro-am and it should be a birdie fest. Over his last 50 rounds, Kisner ranks fifth in both SG: APP and SG: P4. His off the tee numbers aren’t great but the fairways are wide enough where it’s ok if his drivers are super accurate.
$8k+
Brendon Todd - $8,800:
Todd has been playing very well over his last handful of tournaments. He has two top 30 finishes at the Sony Open and Tournament of Champions, and then finished fourth at the RSM and won the whole thing at the Mayakoba Golf Classic. He’s projected to have just a six percent ownership and that’s just another reason why I like this play. Some key stats where he’s checking the boxes for me are SG: P5 where he ranks third, he’s fourth in Bogey Avoidance, and first in Prox: 75-100.
Russell Knox - $8,100:
Knox is checking a lot of boxes for me here. Over his last 50 rounds, he’s fourth in both SG: APP and SG: P4, and second in Prox: 75-100. Over his last 100 rounds, he’s fifth in SG: P5. He’s another one that has been shaky off the tee, but I believe he’s good enough to recover from a wayward drive to have a good showing this week.
$7k+
Vaughn Taylor - $7,900:
Like I mentioned earlier with Im, this play will probably be pretty chalky. Again, I’m ok with that because of what Taylor has done lately. He has a T12 at the Sony Open, a T10 at RSM, and T2 at Mayakoba. Taylor also finished T7 here last year, as well. For key stats I’m looking at SG: PG where he ranks tenth, Bogeys Avoided where he’s 12th, and he’s 21st in Prox: 75-100.
Henrik Norlander - $7,100:
Norlander finished T9 at the Sony Open and then T5 at RSM. As far as key stats are concerned he is checking the boxes in SG: P5, ranking 19th among the field. He’s also 26th in Bogey Avoidance. It’s really his recent form and then his projected ownership of just seven percent that attracts me to him this week.
$6k+
Cameron Davis - $6,900:
This price range is tough because there are about 100 golfers at $6.9k and under, but Davis is my first pick here. Davis finished T9 at last week’s Sony Open, and also T28 at last year’s American Express. Over his last 50 rounds, Davis ranks first in BoB Gained and also 21st in Bogey Avoidance.
Bo Hoag - $6,800:
Hoag also finished T9 last week at the Sony Open, so we know he has some decent recent form. He had a rough go at the RSM, but did finish T20 at Mayakoba. He ranks 18th in Prox: 75-100 and 34th in SG: P5. This price range has a lot of dart throws, but they’ll all have lower ownership and this is a dart throw I’m more confident in.
Key Stats “Key”:
SG: OTT = Strokes Gained Off The Tee
SG: APP = Strokes Gained Approach
SG: P4 = Strokes Gained Par 4 Scoring
SG: P5 = Strokes Gained Par 5 Scoring
BoB Gained = Birdies over Bogeys Gained
Bogeys Avoided
Prox: 75-100 = Proximity 75-100 Yards from the Hole
* All Stats and Ownership Projections courtesy of Fantasy National
