Prospect Watch
It doesn’t matter what sport; fantasy owners are always running to grab the next great prospect.
They have a lot of value, often too much value, and snagging the right ones can be franchise altering for fantasy owners, especially in dynasty. This season we saw several top prospects make the rosters out of camp, including Pete Alonso, Fernando Tatis Jr and Chris Paddock who have done well. So, who’s next and what should we expect? In this edition, we’ll go over some of the top hitting prospects due up this season, who haven’t made their appearances in the Majors yet this year.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays
The consensus number one overall prospect is the one annoying us all. By all accounts, especially in our own impatient minds, there’s no reason he shouldn’t have got the call up for his cup of tea last September. Had that happened, I suspect we all would’ve been satisfied, and we wouldn’t been discussing this right now because he’d be helping fill seats at the Rogers Centre.
Hindsight is 20/20, but how is Guerrero starting off 2019? The minor league season is young, and Guerrero did require a brief “rehab” assignment for an injury that counts for nearly half of his season so far. He was less than himself on the rehab assignment, he actually struck out down in A ball, you believe that? He’s since went back to Triple-A Buffalo though and is back to himself. High average, with power, not much walking, but even less striking out. Besides that, he’s been helping push the Buffalo Bison attendance to compete (not really, but it’s way closer than it should be) with the Toronto Blue Jays attendance.
To this point, he’s the complete hitting package. No, he doesn’t have the speed for triples and steals, but everything else he has covered. He walks more than he strikes out, he brings the pop and he can hit for a high average. The only questions are; does his game translate the same to the Big Leagues? And (in dynasty), how long does he stay at the hot corner? The kid is 6’2” 250 lbs and he’s only 20 years old. Toronto is historically all for bad defense at third for a good bat (Edwin Encarnacion & Jose Bautista), but eventually a change is made. When that change is made years down the road, moving to first will hurt his value quite a bit. No longer will he be an Arenado, but rather a Jose Abreu or Joey Votto. If a fulltime DH role ever comes, his value is destroyed, no matter how good he is. Have no fear though, that shouldn’t come within his service time window.
Target hard, target often, target heavy if you don’t own him. In redraft, he was an eighth-round pick coming into the season. Currently, there’s certain third and fourth round guys I’d give for him straight without batting an eye or thinking twice. Buffalo is less than 100 miles away from Toronto, when the promotion finally comes, it will be swift, with no way to go back. So, guys like Starling Marte and Khris Davis I’d give happily, outfield is deep with plenty more on the way, as you’ll see throughout the series of this article.
Nick Senzel – Cincinnati Reds
If you live in some parts of Ohio and are a Cincinnati Reds fan, you might’ve heard some whispers crying foul about Nick Senzel being sent down in camp. Hard to hear them over the Guerrero cries, but they were there, I assure you. For those unfamiliar with this unanimous top 10 prospect of the past two years, who was the number two overall pick in the 2016 draft, let me get you up to speed a bit.
Senzel was drafted as a third baseman out of University of Tennessee with an advance hitting approach, who the Reds decided they would also work out at second base, left field and center field. Yeah, they don’t know exactly what they’re doing with him, huh? He sees the ball well, he works the counts, earns his walks, and keeps strikeouts down. He does have some speed that can be sneaky, unfortunately his baserunning skills are not as advanced as his bat. Senzel is blocked at third in Cincinatti by Eugenio Suarez but behind Suarez is Jonathan India. Jose Peraza is at second but can play short where Jose Iglesias currently is. The outfield needs work, Puig and Kemp are on expiring deals, while Winker should be in a platoon, and Schebler should be a 4th outfielder at best.
Ideally, with Senzel’s middle of the pack power and low speed, he’s built for second base in fantasy. With a ceiling of Dustin Pedroia in his prime, a 300+ average, with 20 bombs, and 10 steals is a great fantasy asset. You put that same player in the outfield, and you have Christian Yelich, not the MVP, but the Marlin who netted a less than stellar return for Miami, and his fantasy usage was equally exciting then. Pray he goes to second base, or that he at least has a big enough utility role to keep eligibility there. At this point, he doesn’t warrant being a must grab, but he’s worth a flier.
Kyle Tucker – Houston Astros
Unlike the other candidates on our list, Kyle Tucker did get his first taste of the majors last year. Even though he too was sent back to the minors during Spring Training, no one cried foul on this one. He played in nearly 30 games for Houston last year and had an awful 143/236/203 triple slash.
His time in the minors to start this season, in Triple-A where he dominated last year, is actually very close to his numbers in call-up to the Majors. Houston has Josh Reddick and Michael Brantley in the corners currently, far from long term solutions, so they’d like Tucker to pan out, but they don’t need him. Fellow Triple-A teammates Jordan Alvarez and Myles Straw should both see the majors this year and not only fit Houston well, but are performing. Alvarez profiles as a power left fielder, while Straw is a speedy center fielder, which allows Springer to go back to right.
I’d expect Tucker to be traded within the next year before Houston loses all value on him. Honestly, it’d be what’s best for him too. His approach is good, low strikeouts, nice walks, great power, good speed and he’s a solid player. Something is off though; something is holding him back. With any luck a new team will try and make a mechanical adjustment and that’s the missing link. I’m not holding my breath though; I’m not even keeping an eye on him in fantasy. I’m salivating over one of his aforementioned teammates.
