Ain't Nobody Got Time For That! 2019 Zero-RB Strategy
Mike Tyson famously said “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Some fantasy football owners may have unknowingly implemented the zero-RB strategy during past drafts, but it wasn’t really fully explained until 2013, when Sean Siegele laid it all out on RotoViz. The idea is to draft your pass catchers first (three or four wide receivers and one tight end) and then worry about your running backs in rounds five or six and beyond. This is a strategy that I have tried myself and I have seen mixed results, as there is no one strategy that is foolproof.
The RB position is the most volatile of them all in fantasy football. Over the last six seasons, RBs drafted in the first 24 picks have played an average of 12 games per season, where RBs drafted within picks 25 and 48 have played an average of 13 games per season. It’s also not guaranteed that a top-five pick will give you a healthy RB. Every season since 2013, at least one of the top-five drafted RBs hasn’t played in more than six games the entire season.
Let’s take a look at how many times, since the zero-RB strategy was defined, that a RB drafted outside of the top 24 in their respective position has finished the season as a top 24 RB:
2013: 8
2014: 11
2015: 12
2016: 10
2017: 9
2018: 11
Now, for fun, let’s flip the tables and look at the opposite and see how many top 24 drafted RBs finished outside of the top 24 (due to injury or under-performance):
2013: 11
2014: 10
2015: 12
2016: 9
2017: 10
2018: 9
Almost 50 percent of RBs taken in the first three to four rounds aren’t a lock to finish as a top 24 RB, so why not spend your high draft capital on pass catchers that will, on average, score more points than running backs. Now, this may vary from year to year depending on how deep we think each position can be. With that said, let me share with you five of my favorite zero-RB candidates for the 2019 season that are currently being drafted outside of the top-24 RB:
1) James White - NE (ADP: 28, My Ranking: 25): Last season, White was drafted as the 43rd overall running back, and he finished as the RB8. Granted, Rex Burkhead was going as the 28th RB and only played eight games, while rookie sensation Sony Michel missed a few games himself. Michel’s knee still worries me and could miss some time throughout the season, while Burkhead might vulture some goal line touchdowns. But, even with the Patriots in a lot of positive game scripts last season, which we should see again this year, White still saw 123 targets as a running back. White is currently being drafted in the late fifth and early sixth rounds, and he’s essentially a WR2 that just happens to play running back.
2) Austin Ekeler - LAC (ADP: 36, My Ranking: 28): Melvin Gordon wants to get paid, and that’s great news for his backup, Austin Ekeler. The Chargers get a healthy Hunter Henry back this season, and they still have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the outside. In 2018, we saw Ekeler collect about ten touches per game, which included four targets per game. While Ekeler didn’t shine in his one lone start last season (in London), I do believe that he is the guy to get the bulk of the work if Gordon decided to continue his hold out into the regular season. He finished as the 24th overall RB last season, and his touches will only go up in 2019.
3) Darrell Henderson - LAR (ADP: 42, My Ranking: 34): I’m surprised that Henderson is still going this low in drafts, especially with everyone aware of Gurley’s arthritic knee and the Rams wanting to reduce his workload. Henderson only caught 19 passes last season at Memphis, but he averaged 18 touches per game. At 5’8”, 208 pounds he can handle the workload and will be ready if Gurley misses any time due to that knee. He has been compared to Maurice Jones-Drew, who had quite the successful NFL (and fantasy football) career himself.
4) Duke Johnson Jr. - HOU (ADP: 48, My Ranking: 40): I fully except Duke’s ADP to climb over the next couple of weeks after his trade to the Houston Texans Lamar Miller is the current RB1 for Houston, but he has been inconsistent over the years and caught just 25 passes last season. Now, in comes Duke Johnson Jr.! Last season, Johnson saw a career low 62 targets (17th best among RBs), but that number should increase with his new team. The Texans offensive line has some new pieces but are unproven and that could spell a lot of pressure on DeShaun Watson which will make him dump the ball off to his backs. Johnson doesn’t have the competition with Miller that he had with Nick Chubb in Cleveland, so don’t be surprised if we see Johnson finish inside the top 24 RB rankings come January.
5) Dion Lewis - TEN (ADP: 53: My Ranking: 42): Derrick Henry had two games last season where he rushed for over 100 yards, and it was at the end of the year. The Titans have lost starting left tackle Taylor Lewan for the first four games of the year which means the left side will be more vulnerable than before. This should mean that we see more Dion Lewis to help block and then slip out of the backfield where he’s the most dangerous. Last year, Lewis saw a career high 67 targets and finished as the RB31. This year he has a chance to crack the top 24, and even if he doesn’t, you’re still getting him at a discount.
Here are the rest of my top Zero-RB picks for 2019:
6) Latavius Murray
7) Chris Thompson
8) Gio Bernard
9) Nyheim Hines
10) Jalen Richard
* All ADP rankings are courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator and FantasyPros, and 2018 Fantasy Rankings are courtesy of FantasyPros.
