Early Offseason Steals- Curent ADP Bargains

April normally fills the air with the smell of rain and new life. Conversely with coronavirus suspending all sports and a lot of jobs, there's an eerie smell to the fresh sunshine we are seeing out of our windows every day. 

People are doing their best to get their mind off the scary news that surrounds every social networking platform and TV channel. Or, maybe they’ve watched every movie on Netflix, binged every show, cleaned every part of their house and are now drooling at the chance to think about sports in a relevant way again. 

With the influx of mock drafts we are getting more of an accurate ADP reading earlier in the new season. With this information, there’s no better time than the present to advise fantasy drafters on the early steals you can get in your 2020 mock draft.

Quarterbacks

Drew Lock - Denver Broncos 

Current ADP (13.05)

The rap god himself, Drew Lock, was on fire to finish the 2019 season. Outside of fantasy, Lock won four of the five games he started for the Broncos. In regards to fantasy, many will look at his 200 yards/game and 1.40 touchdowns/game from the end of last year and be very scared off this early into the new league year. 

However, with the addition of Melvin Gordon, and possibly a new young flashy wide receiver like Henry Ruggs III, this offense could be flowing. It’s not the sexiest pick right now as I’m only speculating they draft a reciever early in this year's draft. 

Which is the perfect time to go buy an up-and-coming player before anyone else jumps on the train.

Matthew Stafford - Detroit Lions

Current ADP (12.01)

The Detroit gunslinger has consistently outproven his August ADP. In 2019 he was on pace to have another great statistical season until he injured his back. 

Just to give you an idea of how good things were going for Stafford in the fantasy world, he finished with the fourth most fantasy points/game with an average of 20.8. The only three quarterbacks who finished with more fantasy points/game were Lamar Jackson 27.8, Deshaun Watson 21.2  and Dak Prescott 21.0.

Stafford also finished with the fifth most fantasy points per drop back with a half a point every time he dropped back.

The Lions will want to rely heavily on their run game and Stafford has been injured due to his back for two straight seasons. So there’s obvious glaring risks when it comes to Stafford, but if you can draft the fourth best fantasy quarterback in the twelfth round, that’s highway robbery. 

Running Backs

Miles Sanders - Philadelphia Eagles

Current ADP (3.10)

Picking a player in the late third round doesn’t always seem like a steal, although if you’re drafting said player as the 15th running back when he has huge potential to finish as a top five running back is a big steal. 

Sanders is a sophomore player who battled Jordan Howard for touches last year. Howard has since signed with the Miami Dolphins and Sanders has taken over as the main back in Philadelphia. 

Sanders showed us he’s a PPR monster last year catching 50 of the 63 balls thrown to him. Combine that with more goal line work and red zone opportunities, the sky's the ceiling for Sanders.

The PPR monster finished his rookie campaign seventh in yards per touch (5.8), fifth in juke rate percentage (32.8%) and 13th in evaded tackles (75). The Eagles should look healthy and prime for another Super Bowl run. Watch out for Sanders to finish with Brian Westbrook type statistics.

Darrell Henderon - Los Angeles Rams

Current ADP (9.05)

Out with the old and in with the new. Todd Gurley, who isn’t really old at all but is being mistaken for an older man sometimes, is gone and that means it’s time for someone to take over. Malcolm Brown proved to be the better back up running back last season, but Henderson was selected in the third round last year and is about to break out this year.

Henderson didn’t give us much to write home about last year while appearing in 13 games he only carried the rock 39 times. Henderson finished with less than 4.0 yards/carry and only caught four balls on six targets. Let’s not forget how bad the Rams offensive line is.

So there’s a reason why he’s being drafted in the ninth round. Yet, this is the close your eyes and swing at bat. If you connect and Henderson fills Gurley’s role flawlessly, you just found yourself a stud back on a team that thrives off of their backfield guys. If you miss, it’s a ninth round pick and you probably were going to miss on all of the ninth round running backs like Duke Johnson, Latavius Murray or Jamaal Williams.

Wide Receivers

Juju Smith-Schuster - Pittsburgh Steelers

Current ADP (7.04)

Somehow Juju Smith-Schuster had a bad year due to injuries upon himself and injuries to his quarterback. Giving him his first try as a WR1 with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges. It’s asinine to now drop Smith-Schuster from a top 10 wide receiver to the 34th receiver off the board.

After going in the second round in almost all drafts in 2019, you can now get an incredible steal in the seventh round. With the return of Ben Roethlisberger, this offense should have no problem clicking. 

Their defense is still a few players away from being a top 15 defense, which means this team could be in high scoring affairs early and often this season.

If that’s the case Smith-Schuster should easily live up to all the hype he had last year. If you invested early last season and got burned, don’t let that infiltrate your thoughts on him in 2020. Go back to the well, one more time.  It will be worth it, especially if you’re drafting him as your WR 3 or 4.

Kenny Stills - Houston Texans

Current ADP (14.01)

With a huge hole opening up in the Texans offense and a 150 targets from 2019 not being accounted for, the question stands ‘Who will take over for the departure of DeAndre Hopkins?’

The easy answer that no one is saying is Will Fuller. No one is believing in Fuller due to the ridiculous amount of injuries that come with the pick every year. Yes, when Fuller is on the field he has the potential to score 40 points and win your fantasy game by himself. 

I, on the other hand, have more faith in last years new comer, Kenny Stills. He flashed in many games with Watson. As mentioned earlier, there’s now 150 targets to go around. Even with the addition of Randall Cobb and David Johnson, there’s still about 50 extra targets to be spread. 

Stills had 55 targets and 40 receptions last year. He finished with 561 yards and four touchdowns. If we had in another 55 targets to Stills this year and double everything, for easier math. Stills would finish the 2020 campaign with 80 receptions, 1,122 yards and eight touchdowns.

That’s exactly what you strive for catching when you go fishing in the 14th round. The same round you can draft a new starting wide receiver on a team that isn’t afraid to throw the ball deep.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee - Los Angeles Rams

Current ADP (12.08)

Tyler Higbee is the second Ram on this list and unlike his teammate, Higbee was something to write home about last year, helping many fantasy owners get into the playoffs and beyond.

Higbee finished the 2019 season on an incredible tear. He had 522 yards in his final five games. He was targeted double digit times four of those five games.

I don’t think the Rams will run their offense through Higbee all season, but with their running game being more of a blind swing, getting their tight end is not a bad thing. The Rams need either their running back or tight end to strive to get better matchups for their receivers. 

Jared Goff proved last year he still has things to work on and as he works through them you should see the same amount of quicker passes to either the running back or tight end position.

Higbee finished the season third in fantasy points per pass route for tight ends (0.61), third in true catch rate (94.5%), fourth in yards per pass route (2.80) and finally lead all tight ends with 14 red zone receptions (14).

If you’re going to be waiting to stream a tight end and Higbee, the 2019 tight end leader in red zone receptions, is still on the board in the 12th round, I’m going to strongly suggest you draft him.

Hayden Hurst - Atlanta Falcons

Current ADP (13.09)

I fully expect Hayden Hurst to be multiple rounds higher than the 13th round come early fall. However, as of now he’s being drafted very low and was just put in a perfect position to succeed.

After being drafted in the first round, Hurst ended up being a big piece of the run blocking puzzle. Leaving the pass catching duties to the third rounder, Mark Andrews. Once Andrews emerged, leaving Hurst in the dust, it was time for Baltimore to move on from their former first round pick. Atlanta was also losing a top tiered tight end in free agency and needed to replace him. So they went and dealt for Hurst. 

Hurst joins a team that opens doors for the tight end position. Hooper is a very good tight end, but was he possibly a result of a great scheme? If you think the same way I do, we both can agree that Hurst shouldn’t lose a step from what Hooper did last year.

Hurst is just as talented and with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Todd Gurley taking defenders away, Hurst will be able to run his routes one on one and should win more times than not.