Evaluating Running Back Systems for 2019
It’s time to identify running back systems that will put individuals in a position to succeed.
The great systems use misdirection, open space, empty boxes, and positive game script to give their primary play makers the most opportunity each time they touch the ball. Good offenses put running backs closer to the goal line, giving them a higher chance for touchdowns. The bad systems just hand the ball off and tell the players to make something happen. Let’s take a look at which systems produced the most RB points in 2018.
NO 523
LAR 473
NE 463
LAC 441
DEN 438
KC 432
NYG 426
BAL 412
SEA 407
CHI 404
JAX 400
DET 398
IND 393
CAR 388
MIA 372
PIT 368
PHI 367
TEN 362
OAK 361
DAL 356
GB 344
CIN 339
SF 335
NYJ 334
CLE 320
ATL 315
ARI 308
MIN 302
HOU 279
WAS 277
BUF 250
TB 240
The Saints were the clear front runner running backs, as both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram finished as top 35 backs. In fact, New Orleans backfield has finished as a top two unit every year since 2015. The top four teams are some of the best offenses in the league. On the other hand, Buffalo and Tampa had a hard time sustaining RB success all season. Buffalo drafted Devin Singletary, but Tampa has not made any significant changes to their backfield. Bruce Arians comes in hoping to change the culture and create a system better built to bring Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones success.
Now that we have systems, let’s look at players within the systems, and their current draft position to determine the minimum volume threshold required to outperform their ADP. The table below is based on 2018 team and fantasy statistics, to determine how much of a volume share each player needs to exceed his draft position. For example, Dalvin Cook’s ADP is RB10. In 2018, the RB11 scored 243.4 fantasy points. The Minnesota RB’s scored 302.2 fantasy points in 2018. Therefore, Cook needs 81% of MIN’s RB points to exceed his ADP. Obviously, we can expect a change in the majority of systems, and not every touch is equal. But this is a good starting point for several players. Do you take player X at 60% or player Y at 40%, five rounds later? Let’s break down some noticeable players.
David Johnson (107%): Johnson needs to massively exceed his 2018 production to return his RB5 value. As a matter of fact, the RB5 last season scored more fantasy points than the entire Arizona backfield combined. This is a huge red flag. I understand that people are excited about Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, but an Air Raid offense is going to benefit Kyler Murray and his receivers more than the RB. Johnson is still dependant on play calling and offensive line play. As talented as Johnson is, I’m fading him as a top-five RB in 2019.
Christian McCaffrey (96%): Requiring 96% of his team's RB points is a huge number. However, that is exactly what McCaffrey did in 2018. There are rumors that the Panthers are looking to preserve McCaffrey for the season, and could remove some of his goal-line carries. If this is true, McCaffrey will not reach 96%.
Alvin Kamara (74%): As much as Kamara costs this season, he still has an incredibly low volume threshold to be a top-five RB. This is because Kamara was top five in fantasy points per touch in each of the last two seasons. It’s hard to imagine Latavius Murray comes in and takes more of a target share than Mark Ingram did, especially knowing what Kamara did the first four weeks of the season last year.
Damien Williams (53%): Williams will either crush this number or have fallen well short. He’s truly a boom or bust player at this point. There were a lot of fantasy points in the KC backfield last season. Andy Reid typically relies on one back all season, but he has also had the benefit of having perennial Pro Bowlers in Brian Westbrook, Jamaal Charles, and Kareem Hunt in the past. I think we could very easily see a running back by committee approach here, as hinted at by Reid.
Derrius Guice (51%): I would have a hard time believing Guice is in line for over 50% of Washington’s fantasy points. Adrian Peterson will still likely be involved, and Chris Thompson is the best pass-catching RB on the team. Guice, coming off the ACL injury and still not practicing, will likely be slowly worked in.
Kerryon Johnson (56%): All signs point to Johnson being the primary ball carrier in 2019, and with the release of Theo Riddick, he could lead the backfield in receptions as well. There’s no reason to think he won’t obtain 50% of Detroit’s RB points.
Mark Ingram (43%): All signs point to Ingram being the primary ball carrier in 2019, and based on his success in New Orleans, he could lead the backfield in receptions as well. Baltimore used the RB frequently with Lamar Jackson in 2018, and Ingram could ideally see 300 touches this season. There’s no reason to think he won’t obtain 50% of Baltimore’s RB points.
James White (35%): White had 59% of New England's backfield’s points last season, and is well established as Brady’s safety net. He’s a huge value in the 5th round.
Dion Lewis (26%): How quickly we’ve forgotten about Lewis, who had over 900 yards for the Titans last season. You can pick him up at the tail end of your draft, and 26% seems to be his floor.
