2020 Free Agent RB Class and Fantasy Football Impact
With the NFL season concluded, now comes the time for great speculation on where free agents may land. Offseason activities provide a good level of entertainment and afford all fantasy managers to navigate their rosters.
When discussing the running back position, the argument continues to be vast on whether to pay big dollars to the position. At this point in how the league has been moving, runners are still a top commodity, but the return on investment on the salary cap is the main focus. Let’s dive into the potential impact these free agents may have in 2020.
Free Agent Running Backs:
Derrick Henry (TEN)
AGE: 26 | 2019 Salary: $1,351,982 | FA Rank: 1
With a sound crop of talent at the position this offseason, holding the first rank is the Titans Derrick Henry. Admittedly, we haven’t been the largest supporters of his overall body of work, but have come to appreciate the talent after a fabulous end to the 2019 campaign. Henry is built like a mac-truck bulldozing the opposition with deceptive speed. The issue we still have with Henry is his ability to turn off the switch in contests limiting to output early in the season. Henry is a volume runner that will endure large punishment in the process.
The issue at hand for the Titans will be the request in how much is his net worth. Already, Henry has intimated that the contract floor will be comparable to that of Zeke Elliott and what the Cowboys paid him. If that truly is the floor, the expectation is around six years, 90 million, with 50 million guaranteed.
With that said, we can’t see any situation where the Titans don’t lock up Henry and move forward with an already talented roster.
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: High
Melvin Gordon (LAC)
AGE: 27 | 2019 Salary: $2,667,443 | FA Rank: 2
Here we find another runner that has proven to have great levels of production but also holds with him many trips to the medical room. Melvin Gordon chose to hold out last offseason, going into the regular season, in hopes to force the hand of the Chargers to provide that big-money contract. With Charger ownership digging in their heals, Gordon returned to action in week five electing to play out the last year of his rookie deal.
As we place Gordon with the number two rank on our list, his value does come with many question marks. First, Gordon has missed 17 games in his five-year career to injury and hasn’t shown consistency in terms of health. Second, Gordon only has one season on record in the NFL of rushing for over 1000 yards in those five years. While there is no question that he has ample amounts of talent, what could he expect for the body of work he’s produced?
While we know Gordon will attempt to gain the most in his new contract, the only certainty we see at this point is – him in a new uniform come next season. The Chargers will move forward without his services and we truly wonder where he’ll land. Perhaps the Bills take a shot to form a tandem with Devin Singletary which could be glorious. Miami also has a giant need and would pay to shore up the position this offseason. Perhaps the Texans would like to bring Gordon aboard to finally have that clear number one runner? Many options will arise for this back to find a new home.
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: High
Kenyan Drake (ARZ)
AGE: 26 | 2019 Salary: $845,315 | FA Rank: 3
The topic of who will be the primary back in Arizona has already picked up steam, simply due in part to rumors that the Cardinals will move away from David Johnson. If Johnson is provided his walking papers, the door is wide open for Kenyan Drake to finally have a backfield to call his own. After being traded to the Cards in a deadline deal with the Dolphins, Drake elevated his play to levels we knew he could achieve - making this conversation a top priority.
Coming off his rookie deal, Drake won’t fetch top tier money and should work in how Arizona runs their offense. With Chase Edmonds also likely to have a role on this club, we still love the possibilities of Drake being the first option out of the gates. He should be locked up before the free-agent market opens.
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: Moderate/High
Kareem Hunt (CLE) (RFA)
AGE: 25 | 2019 Salary: $1,100,000 | FA Rank: 4
Some may question why we have a restricted free agent on the list of top players to covet, but this situation is very intriguing and needs to be discussed. With the often troubled Kareem Hunt looking to replant himself as an outstanding citizen, he paid his debt and finished his suspension coming back to prove he is still worth holding on a roster. The difference to what could’ve been massive statistical achievements this past season, was a teammate named Nick Chubb. Forced to play in the multi back system, Hunt still showed his worth in bunches.
When it comes to his contract, the Browns still hold his rights and will likely place a first-round tender to preclude other clubs from stealing his services. Could we envision a team forfeiting a first-round pick for Hunt, maybe, but his off-field concerns are the biggest question mark? For fantasy football purposes, we would like to see him with another team that doesn’t have a talent like Chubb standing in his way.
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: Moderate/High
Austin Ekeler (LAC) (RFA)
AGE: | 2019 Salary: $556,667 | FA Rank: 5
An interesting situation exists with the Chargers as Austin Ekeler is a free agent, but holds restricted status. By all accounts, we can’t envision L.A. moving on from this talented player that filled in so nicely in the Melvin Gordon absence. Granted, the running pedigree could be in question for Ekeler to carry the load for any team, but he made his money in the passing game and it should be much of the same next season.
Ekeler was an absolute dynamo as a receiver from the backfield seeing 108 targets while hauling in a whopping 92 receptions in the process. In that fantastic progression, Ekeler fell just seven yards short of 1000 yards receiving for the season – absolutely incredible. Could we see a club place an offer sheet if a second or third round tender is placed? Perhaps, but we should see him return to L.A. next season.
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: Moderate/High
Jordan Howard (PHI)
AGE: 25 | 2019 Salary: $647,006 | FA Rank: 6
As we come around to the second tier of running backs to grace the open market list, Jordan Howard is a player that continues to pull little respect. While yes, his time in Philadelphia wasn’t overly abundant with stats to take notice, we feel it was the system that wasn’t conducive to his abilities. Furthermore, the emergence of rookie Miles Sanders also placed a big claw in Howard gaining traction.
We find it hard to believe that Howard will return to the city of brotherly love in 2020 as teams should be vying for his services also. A great positive to remove from this past season, Howard saw minimal carries to help his body recover from his days with the Bears. Over the three years in Chicago, Howard rushed the ball a whopping 778 times, wherein Philly he ran a mere 119 times. A fresher body will bring with it greater achievements if found on the right roster. We aren’t giving up on Howard just yet and neither should you!
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: Moderate
Damien Williams (KC) (Club Option)
AGE: 28 | 2019 Salary: $2,550,000 | FA Rank: 7
With a super bowl championship on the resume, the 2020 outlook may have changed for the Chiefs Damien Williams. Before hoisting the NFL’s top prize, we absolutely would’ve seen Kansas City move in another direction in upgrading from Williams. Now, however, the conversation will be had to if he should remain in their plans moving forward.
While we like Williams overall as a player, we still can’t get on-board with him being a top tier running back, especially in fantasy football. To us, Williams is a product of his environment to which the Chiefs offense makes him that much better. And while the Chiefs still hold all the cards with the club option likely dictating his future, we could see him in the red and yellow once again next season. For statistical purposes, staying on as a Chief would be the best thing for his fantasy future.
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: Moderate
Carlos Hyde (HOU)
AGE: 28 | 2019 Salary: $2,800,000| FA Rank: 8
Over the past two seasons, Carlos Hyde has jumped around the league playing for two clubs before finding a home with the Texans. Never having secured a 1000 yard rushing season in his career, Hyde managed to expel the most of his opportunity in Houston to finally reach that feat. Even though there was plenty to appreciate from the past season, we truly can see the Texans wanting a strong upgrade at the position.
With that said, Hyde didn’t garner much in the form of heavy compensation, and could again be brought back at a bargain price. At this point in his career, the tread on the tires are starting to get low and he shouldn’t have many more chances to be the lead back. He should continue to have a role in 2020 but temper the expectations.
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: Moderate/Low
Lamar Miller (HOU)
AGE: 29 | 2019 Salary: $6,500,000 | FA Rank: 9
As we enter the 2020 offseason, the forgotten man of sorts is the Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller. Missing the entire 2019 season to a knee injury, Miller is now set to hit the open market and we truly wonder how many teams will be after him. Being on the wrong side of his twenties and coming off a devastating injury, Miller might have to latch on to a minimum deal in hopes to keep his career going.
That being said, if Miller does find his way back to full health, he could be a valuable piece to a backfield. Miller has always been capable in the receiving department and would have sound ability to play the secondary role. His value is dropping, but he still holds some.
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: Low
Peyton Barber (TB)
AGE: 26 | 2019 Salary: $2,125,000| FA Rank: 10
When we dive into the bottom of what remains on the open market, the Buccaneers Peyton Barber is one to watch but not necessarily one to covet. Barber is a player with a limited skill set that will always make you want more. Not gifted with great speed or hands, his role will again be the downhill runner for any club. With how bad the Tampa Bay ground game was this past season, we would be shocked to see him return to the mix.
On the open market, we do feel there is room for a club to collect his services, simply due in part to the fact that he can handle a load. Being that hard-nosed pounder in a multi back system would be the best situation for him. His youth is the main reason he’s listed here.
2020 Potential Fantasy Impact: Low
Honorable Mention:
Matt Breida (SF) (RFA) 2019 Salary: $556,667, LeSean McCoy (KC) 2019 Salary: $3,000,000, Adrian Peterson (WAS) (CO) 2019 Salary: $2,515,000, Frank Gore (BUF) 2019 Salary: $2,000,000, Chris Thompson (WAS) 2019 Salary: $3,503,400, Corey Clement (PHI) 2019 Salary: $558,333
