FanDuel Report: 2020 Super Bowl DFS Picks
This is a bitter-sweet write up for me. This is the last NFL DFS contest of the season, and then it’s a long eight-month wait until the next one comes along. I want to thank you all for taking the time to read these write ups throughout the playoffs, and I encourage you to sign up for The Fantasy Headliners Patreon service next season, as I’ll be heading up the NFL DFS content for 2020. Ok, enough with the sappy stuff, let’s get into this article.
The format for this DFS slate will be an MVP format. You have five slots to fill: MVP and four FLEX positions. The player you select as your MVP will receive 1.5x the number of points as your FLEX players. That also means the MVP will receive that number of negative points for interceptions and fumbles.
Of course, there are some players that are extremely expensive but that’s because they can return the most value for you. So, I’m going to give you some plays, both high and low priced, that I like for this year’s Super Bowl and hopefully, they can exceed value.
Players to consider for the MVP slot:
Patrick Mahomes - $16,000:
This is the obvious selection, but it’s also the most warranted. Mahomes averaged 21 FanDuel points per game this season, and he has been electric throughout these playoffs. In his two playoff games this year he has 615 passing yards, ten total touchdowns (two of them rushing), and zero interceptions. I know how good the 49ers defense is, especially their pass rush, but the Chiefs do have a top-five pass-blocking offensive line to protect Mahomes.
Raheem Mostert - $13,500:
Tevin Coleman was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, as he’s still recovering from a separated shoulder in the NFC Championship. Even if Coleman is able to suit up on Sunday, how effective will he really be with that shoulder injury? In the NFC Championship, we saw Mostert explode for 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns. During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed 109 rushing yards per game to RBs. The Chiefs were able to hold the Texans under 100 rushing yards as a team and then kept Derrick Henry in check for 69 rushing yards in the AFC Championship. With that said, if you feed Mostert he will produce.
George Kittle - $11,500:
Kittle has been playing with a torn labrum for the last two years, but you’d never know it. He’s the best, most complete tight end in the NFL, as far as I’m concerned. Throughout the regular season, the Chiefs had some trouble against tight ends, allowing 60 receiving yards per game, while also allowing the third-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends. If the 49ers start to play from behind and need to get back into the game by throwing the ball, look for Kittle to be the beneficiary of those targets.
For the FLEX spots, you can certainly play any of the guys that I mentioned above, but here some other options to help round out your lineups:
Kansas City Pass Catchers:
Travis Kelce - $12,500 was a beast against Houston, catching 10 of 12 targets for 134 yards and three touchdowns, only to be a non-factor against the Titans. The 49ers are very good against tight ends, but Kelce is too talented to be denied two weeks in a row. Tyreek Hill - $12,000 is the clear option here. He has run more routes than any other wide receiver in both the divisional and conference championship games. Whoever is covering him in the slot (most likely K’Waun Williams), they simply don’t have the speed to keep up with him. Sammy Watkins - $10,500 has been targeted the second-most among wide receivers over the last two rounds in the playoffs. He also has more targets, receptions, and receiving yards than Hill. Demarcus Robinson - $6,500 and Mecole Hardman - $6,000 are the wild cards here. They flip-flopped routes run in the two playoff games this year, though Robinson ran a significant number of routes more than Hardman against the Texans. If I had to flip a coin, I’d take Hardman over Robinson.
Emmanuel Sanders - $7,500:
Sanders has just two catches for 33 yards this postseason, so I can see people shy away from him in favor of the rookie, Deebo Samuel. Sanders should be matched up against Chavarious Ward, who has been picked on in these playoffs. Over the last two games, Ward has allowed 136 receiving yards, one touchdown, and a quarterback rating of 116.2.
The Kickers:
This game has an over-under of 54.5, so there should be plenty of scoring opportunities which means that it’s perfectly viable to play one or both of the kickers in this game. Harrison Butker - $9,500 has made 11 of his 12 extra-point attempts during these playoffs to go along with one field goal. Robbie Gould - $9,000 is seven for seven in extra points, and five for five in field goals this postseason.