2019 Breakout Candidates- Wide Receiver
The wide receiver position in fantasy football seems to produce several new breakout players every year.
Sometimes it’s a rookie superstar like JuJu Smith-Schuster and other times it’s a second-year guy who learned the system while everything else clicked. Kenny Golladay is a very good example of this. These two have something in common. They were both drafted in 2017 and are entering their third year in the NFL. These two found success rather quickly. Other times it takes three years for a guy to get it, like Cincinnati Bengals Tyler Boyd. The third year of Boyd’s career proved to have career highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns.
Smith-Schuster and Golladay broke out before year three, what about the rest of the class? Taking a guess, most people know a good amount of these players. The intent is to focus on players that based on the situation, and rising success from year one to year two, have the ability to be major fantasy impacts, even though they did well in some categories in year two.
One player poised to break out is a receiver who benefits from a roster casualty. Mike Williams has every potential to not only be a WR with a breakout year but possibly finish as a top-20 wide receiver. Williams is a candidate for slight regression in touchdowns mainly because of the reemergence of Hunter Henry. However, he does have a significant opportunity in targets and catches as well as yards. He averaged only 2.7 receptions per game and scored 10 TDs. His red zone opportunities are not an issue. With Tyrell Williams leaving to the Oakland Raiders; it opens up 65 targets that were thrown his way last year. Williams stands to gain close to half of those targets that Williams left. With 15.4 yards per reception and more targets, there is a real possibility for over 1000 yard and upwards of 10 touchdowns. This firmly places him as a breakout, and talent alone says to go ahead and take him somewhere close but before his ADP of 6.07 according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
Can Bruce Arians help this next candidate become a breakout star? Chris Godwin finished as a top 20 receiver while competing for targets with Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson. Those players have since departed and Arians brings a pass-happy offense to Tampa Bay with him. Arians have mentioned Godwin could be used in the coveted “Larry Fitzgerald” slot role which has fantasy owners salivating. The key is available targets, and with 179 targets between Humphries and Jackson now gone, Godwin has a real opportunity for 100 receptions. In 2018, Humphries had 816 yards and five touchdowns, while Jackson had 774 yards and four touchdowns. That was 30% of the Tampa Bay passing yards last year. Godwin showed a good amount of production with those players taking targets and opportunity away. This is the year Godwin becomes a force. Taking him at his current ADP of 5.03 in PPR leagues is a move that is highly recommended.
The final receiver that is poised for a year three break out is Curtis Samuel. In his second year, Samuel caught 39 passes for 494 yards. He caught five touchdown passes and rushed for two more. On 47 total touches, Samuel scored on 14.8% of his plays. As a receiver, he averaged 12.7 yards per reception. Many people are excited about D.J. Moore, and rightfully so, however; many people are sleeping on Samuel. Devin Funchess has now left the Panthers and went to the Indianapolis Colts. With the Panthers not drafting any real competition to the receiving corps, Samuel has moved from third on the depth chart to second. Funchess’s departure opens up 79 targets. If Moore and Samuel split the now open targets 60/40 with similar production to last year, Samuel would project for 58 receptions, 719 yards, and 9 touchdowns. To give an idea of the breakout potential, the receptions and yards would be similar to Moore’s season last year but with 7 more touchdowns. While these numbers are only projections, it gives visibility to the potential breakout that Samuel could have in his third season in the league. Samuel’s current ADP is 13.07 and based on the opportunity for targets and his production last year; Samuel is a good bet to be a steal at that draft price.
This season there is a high probability that some of the players mentioned above breakout in their third year based on opportunity and additions made by their teams to support their play. When planning league drafts, owners should think about how these players can fit into their drafts. There is a good opportunity for Samuel, Godwin, and Williams to play at or above their ADP and have their best seasons yet in the NFL.
