Over the Hill? Veteran WR Value Check

Fantasy football relevance typically witnesses a giant regression when players reach the age of 30 years old.

Maintaining high levels of productivity becomes more difficult to sustain once a player becomes long in the tooth. With that said there are exceptions to the rule where high caliber talents defy father time and continue to excel on the field.

As the offseason has progressed, many in our circle have opened up the conversation to appropriately identify where past high-end fantasy producers should sit moving forward. Understanding the potential to continue to earn positive statistics is important when choosing aging players. In realizing productivity of the below evaluated players could see a drop off, we still feel strongly in the potential for sound efficiency from this group.      

Wide Receivers Over 30

Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons  

With the great Julio Jones entering his ninth NFL season and reaching the age of 30-years old, we’ve heard many who believe a letdown in statistical achievement is on the horizon. As some continue to wait for the decline to become a reality, we truly struggle to understand why some view Jones in such an uneven light.

Over the course of his career Jones has been nothing short of stellar in proving his net worth with extreme consistency. When Jones entered the league back in 2011, he did in fact fight with injuries to his foot which accounted for a significant loss in time. However, over the past five campaigns, Jones has managed to remain rather healthy in only missing three contests over that span. Seeing those argue that Jones is an injury prove player couldn’t be further from truth.

In de-bunking the notion that Jones can’t complete a full season, the other aspect individuals argue is the lack of overall fantasy prowess compared to his average draft position (ADP). Year-in, year-out, Jones continues to hold a first-round evaluation in fantasy drafts and simply doesn’t let down his managers. While we could agree that Jones hasn’t seen the fruits of his labor equate to a ginormous presence in the endzone, he does make up for that in receptions and yardage. The concern is real when discussing touchdown proficiency from Jones as he’s only managed to amass one season of 10 or more scores.

Entering 2019 and attempting to appropriately place value on the Falcons superstar talent, Jones currently sits as the third best receiver and 13th overall offensive player according to Fantasy Football Calculator. While we could make arguments for Jones to be the first receiver off the board in this Dirk Koetter offense, the perception that some see decreased production is truly laughable. We fully endorse Julio Jones as a pure WR1 in all fantasy formats.  

AJ Green – Cincinnati Bengals  

Even as the Bengals AJ Green was drafted in the same 2011 class as Julio Jones, he too is now hearing strong negatives to his overall game and holding injury concerns. While Jones witnessed his injury history increase early on in his career, Green has recently seen more issues in health missing a whopping 13 contests in the past three seasons. Obviously with missing time on the field, statistical performance will also take a sharp decline in the stat column.  

Green managed to suit up for a mere nine contests in 2018 leaving many disgruntled and dissatisfied. With recent news that Green has been doing very well in his recovery this offseason, we have an optimistic outlook that he should be able to return to form while proving he still has plenty left in the tank.

Normally for a player of his caliber, Green should see his ADP continue to be high entering 2019 fantasy drafts, but Green currently sits as the 11th ranked receiver and the 30th overall offensive player. If Green does return to full health, having a middle of the third-round draft grade is unfathomable for a player of his skillset. We aren’t ready to pack it in on AJ Green just yet.  

Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals  

Future hall of famer Larry Fitzgerald is one of those players that refuses to call it quits while continuing to show solid ability. Over the course of his illustrious NFL career, Fitzgerald has seen a multitude of turnover at the quarterback position which at times leaves the viewing public calling for his retirement.

While last season was nothing to write home about, the Arizona Cardinals quickly changed direction and revamped this offense with a superb draft class oozing potential. With Fitzgerald entering his 16th season in the league at the ripe age of 36-years young, some have already written him off as a viable fantasy producer. We on the other hand see great value in the classy veteran now with rookie Kyler Murray leading the charge.

What Murray brings to this offense is much greater than his counterpart Josh Rosen. Murray is a much cleaner passer with a heightened ability to run the ball creating mismatches all over the field. With added weapons to this receiving core to help aid in single coverage, all should be music to Fitzgerald’s ears.   

Looking to the value markers on Fitzgerald for the upcoming season, being placed as the 43rd ranked receiver with an overall sitting at the 111th spot, we have a hard time believing he isn’t of great worth. Currently sitting as far down as the early ninth round in drafts could bring substantial numbers this season.  

Golden Tate – New York Giants  

With most of the receiving talent holding age under 30-years old these days, we will preach yet another over that mark that could also bring with him decent levels of success.

When the New York Giants traded away superstar Odell Beckham Jr to the Browns this offseason, it left the Giants with a gaping hole in the receiving core. With Golden Tate chasing the money from free agency and finding his place with New York in hopes to still prove he could be that trusted pass catcher; we are curious to see what the outcome will be. Entering his 10th NFL season at the age of 31-years old, Tate has an opportunity to continue that point per reception aptitude that has defined his career.   

Even as Tate sits close to Larry Fitzgerald in terms of current ADP, this opportunity could bear more fruit given the lack of competition at the position. Holding steady as the 46th wide receiver and the 119th offensive player according to fantasy football calculator, Tate could hold weekly flex position appeal. While we can already hear the viewing public ridicule any situation were Tate could find fantasy relevance with Eli Manning, we simply can’t ignore the healthy 10.3 targets per game left behind from Beckham’s departure.

Over his career with the Lions, Tate has been a staple of consistency seeing nothing less than 120 targets per season which should equate to success in the slot with the big-blue. It's understandable to question Eli Manning heading into the 2019 season, but if coach Shurmur is smart, he will continue the short pass approach to help Manning find Tate with a high target share.