Time to Shine? Same Players, New Opportunities
2020 NFL Free Agency was full of huge moves, and it isn’t completely over yet. When Adam Schefter went to rapid fire mode on Twitter, I thought about the now former teammates of those who departed. I wondered, are those players secretly ecstatic? For instance, Miles Sanders had to have been a little excited to see Jordan Howard go off to sunny Miami.
The fantasy value of a departed free agent is like a double edged sword. It’s just as important to analyze those left behind.
Free agency brought me back to the last episode of The Fresh Prince of Bel Air. Philip gives the butler, Geoffrey his yearly bonus as he leaves the family. Then cast member by cast member walks out the front door, which leaves for an iconic GIF, and Will Smith alone in the living room. This scene embodies 2020 NFL Free Agency because it’s Will’s house now. Production is king in fantasy football, and new opportunities have risen. I’m not saying that these players are now bonafide fantasy studs, but the production is there for the taking. Let’s take a look at which players have an increased role pre NFL Draft.
Miles Sanders- RB, PHI | 2019 Season: 818 Rushing Yards, 6 Total TD’s, 509 Receiving Yards, 1 Fumble
Miles Sanders had a promising rookie campaign. As the co-captain in the backfield to Jordan Howard, Sanders showed that his true strength is catching balls out of the backfield. Fortunate for Sanders, Howard is gone for good, and, as of now, more carries are up for grabs. Let’s be clear. Whether your league is seasonal, dynasty, or DFS, all owners should be aware of a possible committee containing other Eagle running backs: Boston Scott, Elijah Holifield, or a newly drafted rookie.
Before the 2019 season, Pro Football Focus ranked The Eagles as the best offensive line in football. This means that Eagles love to run the ball. While averaging 28.4 carries per game, the Eagles ranked tenth in the league for total rushing. Howard was no fantasy superstar, but he still managed 119 carries last year. With an average of 11.2 rushing attempts and 3.2 receptions last season, Sanders is bound for a promotion. Volume is the key ingredient for Sanders to become a reliable RB2, and it's here for him.
Will Fuller- WR, HOU | 2019 Season: 49 Receptions, 670 Receiving Yards, 3 Total TD’s
There is no doubt that Will Fuller has undeniable talent as a receiver. However, the consensus amongst owners is that he’s injury prone and reliant on the big plays down the field. Those critics are correct, but DeAndre Hopkins is no longer a Texan as his 104 receptions are gone to Arizona. Houston averaged 255.2 receiving yards per game and 355 passing completions, which finished around the middle pact of the league with an average of 22.1 receptions a game. Houston’s receiving numbers are bound to decrease with Hopkins’s absence, but Deshaun Watson will still be firing tons of passes. If Fuller remains Watson’s WR1, why not take a gamble?
I am not predicting that Fuller will (pun intended) become a WR1 or a strong WR2, but the increased production is there. Also, Fuller’s competition for receptions is not overwhelming. With Kenny Kenny Stills and newcomer David Johnson out of the backfield, there is no main “guy” in Houston. It remains to be seen if Fuller can stay healthy after a torn ACL in 2018, multiple hamstring strains, and if Houston somehow invests in this year’s loaded receiver draft class with almost no draft capital. Due to the Texans having no first or second round picks, a late round selection on Fuller might prove to be a well worthy investment.
Gardner Minshew- QB. JAX | 2019 Season: 3,271 Passing Yards, 344 Rushing Yards, 21 Total TD’s, 6 INT’s
Once Nick Foles went down with a broken collar bone in Week 1, Minshew mania was in full effect. Gardner Minshew seemed to have complete control of the Jaguars QB slot, but Foles was still linked to a massive contract. With Foles gone to Chicago, Minshew is the unquestioned 2020 starting quarterback for the Jaguars. Minshew finished as QB 19 while benched behind Foles for weeks 11 and 12. Jacksonville matched the league average per game with 235 passing yards per game, and Minshew is only 23 years old.
It is also to be noted that Minshew has a valuable trait for QB’s in 2020: rushing ability. With 4.8 rushing attempts on average per game last season, Minshew is close to covering 25% of the average rushing attempts (26.1) per team last year. In a seasonal draft, most owners look to wait on a QB. Minshew could be your guy if you look at his locked role, promising 2019 campaign, and young weapons such as D.J. Chark and Leonard Fournette.
Adam Thielen- WR, MIN | 2019 Season: 30 Receptions, 418 Receiving Yards, 7 Total TD’s
Don’t let Adam Thielen’s 2019 stats fool you. Thielen dealt with ankle and hamstring injuries but seems to be ready to go for the 2020 season, whenever that begins. Stefon Diggs is now a Buffalo Bill, which means that Thielen is the unquestioned WR1 on the Viking depth chart.
Hear me out on this one. An absent Diggs (63 receptions for 1,130 yards, and six TD’s) plus the fact that Vikings were ninth in average yards per reception (11.7) is outstanding news for Thielen. Thielen was already a PPR machine when healthy in 2017 and 2018. If completely healthy, why can’t Thielen get back to the 100 plus receptions level fantasy owners fell in love with? Thilen’s checklist for a great 2020 is almost complete. Diggs gone? Check. The heat of free agency over? Check. Healthy? For now, check. However, it remains to be seen if the Vikings bring in new wideouts with the 22nd and 25th pick in the upcoming draft.
Other Notable Players with Already Increased Production From Free Agency
Deebo Samuel WR (SF) | (Emmanuel Sanders left for New Orleans)
Austin Ekeler RB (LAC) | (Melvin Gordon left for Denver)
Brian Hoyer and Jared Stidham QB (NE) | (Tom Brady moved on to Tampa Bay)
LA Rams RB’s (Darrell Henderson Jr. and Malcom Brown) | (Todd Gurley to Atlanta)
