One Hit Wonder or Here to Stay? Evaluating 2019 Breakouts

In the 2019 NFL season, there was plenty of breakout value from across the board. Whether it was a late round pick, a waiver wire pickup, or the improvement of an early round stud, now is a vital time for evaluation. The only difference between fantasy football and a hit song is this; you cannot always plug in a player that was great last year. Very few players keep their boosted statline up for the next season. 

 For instance, in 2018, if you owned Patrick Mahomes, chances are your season went well. However, once Mahomes’s value went to potentially the third or fourth round, fantasy owners got burned. Let’s avoid that by determining which 2019 one hit wonders are going to come back with another hit single season. 

2020 One Hit Wonders: QB’s

Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 2019 Season: 3,127 Passing Yards, 36 Passing TD’s, 1,206 Rushing Yards, 7 Rushing TD’s, 6 Interceptions, 2 Fumbles

Jackson had one of the most historic seasons for a quarterback. Those who were lucky enough to own Jackson were enamored week in and week out. In a standard PPR league, Jackson will most likely be projected to go in the third to fourth round. This is simply too high of a pick to spend on a QB in a seasonal league.

In 15 games, Jackson nearly doubled the league average for passing touchdowns with 2.46 per game compared to 1.6. Jackson also averaged just over 80 rushing yards per game this season. The league average per team was 112.9 per game. That means that in any other offense in the league, Jackson would be responsible for 70% of total rushing. It would be unprecedented if Jackson could keep up his dual threat ability.

Before the 2019 season, NFL teams only had a sampling of Jackson on film. Again, this is similar to what happened to Mahomes in 2018. With a year of footage and increased expertise from around the league, teams are more equipped on how to slow down Jackson’s lethal running ability. Jackson will have to face the Steelers (twice), Cowboys, Titans, Chiefs, Eagles, and the Patriots, which is undoubtedly a difficult schedule. Owners can still expect a solid season from Jackson but should truly consider if a high draft pick is worth the risk.

2020 Here to Stay: QB’s

Josh Allen (BUF) | 2019 Season: 3,089 Passing Yards, 20 Passing TD’s, 510  Rushing Yards, 9 Rushing TD’s, 9 Interceptions, 4 Fumbles

I am still in shock that Allen had more rushing TD’s than Jackson in 2019. The Bills truly figured out what Allen needs to succeed: dependable  receivers like Cole Beasely and John Brown, and the ability to run often. Allen was a diamond in the rough who played like a top six fantasy quarterback. 

Moving into 2020, Allen is projected to be a late seventh to eighth round pick. Allen’s projected draft position definitely supports his value. Who knows, maybe Allen will have another weapon next season. The Bills might draft a wide out from this year’s loaded receiver draft class. 

2020 One Hit Wonders: RB’s

Dalvin Cook (MIN) | 2019 Season: 1,135 Rushing Yards, 13 Rushing TD’s, 519 Receiving Yards, 2 Fumbles

Hear me out on this one. Dalvin Cook could very well put up similar numbers in 2020. The issue with Cook is his schedule, and how he left off in 2019. Cook took full advantage of weaker defenses but struggled against the Bears, Eagles, Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks, and Chargers.

The Vikings were definitely not afraid of feeding Cook’s massive workload. Cook got 247 carries in 14 games played. This means that Cook averaged over 20 carries a game compared to a league average per team of 26.1. Basically, Cook was a one man band who had to cancel the end of his tour due to overproduction. I would not be surprised if Alexander Mattison got an increased workload next season. 

 An injured shoulder may have played a large role in Cook’s late season underperformance, but his opponents do not get easier in 2020. Cook still deserves to be one of the top running backs off the board. Keep in mind that Cook’s statline may have reached its peak. For someone who will demand a high first round pick, this is a situation that fantasy owners need to monitor. 

2020 Here to Stay: RB’s 

Austin Ekeler (LAC) | 2019 Season: 557 Rushing Yards, 3 Rushing TD’s, 993 Receiving Yards, 8 Receiving TD’s, 2 Fumbles

It remains to be seen how the departure of Philip Rivers will impact how many checkdown passes will be thrown to Ekeler. Ekeler still took full advantage of every rep he got in 2019, especially in PPR format. A running back who gets 4.2 yards per carry and more reps at receiver, what more could owners want?

With the assumed departure of Melvin Gordon, Ekeler will again have Charger backfield priorities. If Gordon stays, Ekeler still should make use of his opportunities but the numbers won’t be as prolific. 

2020 One Hit Wonders: WR’s

DJ Chark (JAC) | 2019 Season: 1,008 Receiving Yards, 8 Receiving TD’s 

Chark came out of nowhere, and was a waiver wire gem. The issue with Chark’s value is his dependency on touchdowns and inconsistency week in and week out. With the quarterback situation unclear and a new offensive coordinator in Jacksonville, it is risky to declare Chark as a bonafide WR2 next season.  

In essence, Chark was a first down machine when the ball got to him. Chark hauled in 13.8 yards per reception last season. The league average for yards per reception last season was 11.4 and has not gone above 12 since 1999. I am just concerned that Chark’s 2019 campaign is a talented, yet inconsistent anomaly. 

2020 Here to Stay: WR’s

Chris Godwin (TAM) | 2019 Season: 1,333 Receiving Yards, 9 Receiving TD’s 

As long as Jamies is under center next season, Godwin should have no issue repeating his breakout 2019 campaign. Bruce Arians relied heavily on Godwin’s dual ability as a slot and deep threat, which should not change. 

2020 One Hit Wonders: TE’s 

Tyler Higbee (LA) | 2019 Season: 734 Receiving Yards, 3 Receiving TD’s 

Higbee came in clutch in the fantasy playoffs and rewarded owners. However, Higbee’s production was the result of a not fully healthy Gereld Everett, an injured Brandon Cooks, and a shaken up Cooper Kupp. There are too many options in Higbee’s way of becoming a trusted top tier TE next season. Higbee is still a smart weekly DFS option.

Through weeks 1-12, Hibee was a fantasy dud. From weeks 13 on, he hauled in 552 yards and two touchdowns (110.4 yards/game). The 2019 average receiving yards for all teams per game was 251.8, which shows that Higbee’s value is his ability to eat up yardage. With all of McVay’s weapons healthy, Higbee’s surge of production is bound to at least decrease by a bit.  

2020 Here to Stay: TE’s 

Mark Andrews (BAL) | 2019 Season: 852 Receiving Yards, 10 Receiving TD’s 

Right from the gecko in week 1 versus the Dolphins, it was quite clear that Jackson liked throwing to Andrews. Consider Andrews a safety blanket in one of the most electric offenses in football. As long as Andrews remains healthy, Hayden Hurst will not be an issue for targets. 

2020 One Hit Wonders: Defense 

New England Patriots | 2019 Season: 47 Sacks, 25 Interceptions, 7 Total TD’s

I cannot remember the last time there was a repeat number one defense in fantasy football. After week 11 last season, the Patriots’ best defensive performance was against the Bengals, which says a lot. The Patriots' schedule will be even more difficult next season.