2020 NFL - Top 10 Sophomore Wide Receivers

Life is like a tree, if you’re not growing, you’re dying.

A quote that echoes through the fantasy football world. If you want to sit in your ways and be oblivious to the ever-changing game that you invest in, you’re killing your chances of winning. However, when you notice a trend happening, trust your gut and jump on the ship early. Continue to grow with the game and you will succeed just like Andy Reid. Plant your foot and stand still, you'll fail like Jeff Fisher.

Thinking third-year wide receivers will have a breakout season is something your Dad thought when he first started his ESPN league. Now, twenty years later it’s your turn to right the ship. Wide Receivers are breaking out earlier and earlier. In 2019, we saw the likes of D.J. Moore, D.J. Chark. Michael Gallup and Courtland Sutton hone in their skills. In 2018, we saw Cooper Kupp, Juju Smith-Schuster, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay. The list continues to grow for second-year receivers as opposed to the third year receivers we all once knew and loved. In my inaugural article, I will list the top ten sophomore wide receivers in order of their upcoming 2020 season. Before free agency, before the draft, before the new league year even starts. I will be throwing a litany of stats and numbers at you throughout this article so at any point if you need to take a break and grab a beer, please do so. I recommend a hazy IPA as Spring is quickly approaching.

10. JJ Arcega-Whiteside (JJAW) - Philadelphia Eagles

The rookie leader in aDOT (average distance of target) in 2019, Arcega-Whiteside was very quiet his rookie year. Though the ball was thrown deep to him whenever he did garner a target, the 22 targets were very disappointing and alarming to fantasy fans. Even through a crippling season of injuries for the Eagles, JJAW was never a first thought for Carson Wentz or Doug Pederson. JJAW was active for all 16 games yet had eight games with zero targets. He never surpassed 50 yards in a game and only caught one touchdown. So, by now, you must be thinking, “What the hell is Nick doing putting JJAW in his top ten sophomore wide receivers.” A valid thought. So I’ll explain myself. With Nelson Agholor surely on his way out, JJAW should have a prime opportunity to step into a great situation on a great offense. When the Eagles can stay healthy they’re as deadly as the Zodiac. Slicing and dicing their way through defenses. Carson Wentz is lethal and the play calling is there. With the return of healthy Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson, safeties will have a hard enough time keeping them locked up. Linebackers will try their damnedest to keep up with Ertz and Goedert. Leaving one lonely cornerback on JJAW. He was put in a tough situation at the end of 2019 when he drew most all the coverage opposite of former AAF player Greg Ward. A very hard spot for a rookie. Though we saw the talent at the collegiate level, we’re still waiting to see it spill over to the league. I think he takes a major step forward on a score-hungry team. Don’t be afraid to take chances by getting a few late shares of JJAW in your drafts.

9. N’Keal Harry - New England Patriots

Another player that doesn’t have much stats to back up a top ten prediction. Harry saw the field for six games in the regular season. Finishing with a mere 12 receptions on 24 targets. He flashed a few great catches but it seemed like second year receiver Jakobi Meyers understood the offense a lot more even before Harry got injured in preseason. Now with Harry having a full year of film sessions with the Patriots you will see him feel more comfortable at Foxborough. Quickly imagine being drafted in the first round, to the New England Patriots. With Tom Brady yelling at you, Bill Belichick yelling at you, the pressure of being expected to come in and learn one of the hardest offenses and stand out. Then in preseason you get injured and never get on the field until week ten. That’s a lot for one guy. Harry was my number one receiver coming out of the draft last year and I have not lost any faith in him. He’s too much of a talent not to supersede all expectations this season. I assure you Tom Brady will be back in a Patriot uniform which in actuality brings down Harry’s value, per Brady showing major signs of decline last year. That’s why Harry is only ninth on this list. He will be overlooked in almost every league and is sure to be one of the best bargains this year at the position.

8. Diontae Johnson - Pittsburgh Steelers

You can go ahead and throw Diontae Johnson’s first year away. He flashed potential and a lot more athleticism than competing wide receivers James Washington and Donte Moncrief. However this man dealt with guys like Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges throwing him the ball. As Charles Barkley would say “Turrible”. Tossing aside the fact that his quarterbacks were as good as Uncle Rico, Johnson still proved he’s going to be a keeper for the Steelers. Johnson finished the final four games of the season with 31 targets (three in the red zone), 23 receptions, two touchdowns and 257 receiving yards. Did I mention that the corners that covered him were Patrick Peterson, Levi Wallace, Marcus Peters and Arthur Maulet. Not the weakest corners out there. Johnson, finished the season with 59 receptions on 92 targets, a 64.1% catch percentage, he showed amazing spark when it came to what he did after he caught the ball. Johnson finished the season 25th in yards after catch for receivers, behind just two fellow rookies, Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown. With the addition of a healthy Ben Roethlisberger I expect the Steelers to find an old form of offensive prowess and as we all know, when the Steelers offense is thriving it’s the one and two receivers that benefit. So be ready for a huge comeback season for Juju and breakout season for Johnson.

7. Darius Slayton - New York Giants

What a wonder it was watching Darius Slayton. As a Lions fan, it was very tough to see him post two touchdowns against my beloved Detroit team, but as a fantasy owner watching him collect eight touchdowns was as exciting as it gets. Slayton was the 18th wide receiver selected in 2019’s NFL draft. He exceeded all expectations as he finished his rookie campaign with some gaudy in-depth numbers. Lets quickly touch on his 84 targets and 48 receptions, 57.1 catch percentage, 740 yards and eight touchdowns to complete his rookie season. Nothing jaw dropping, but for a late fifth rounder, very exciting. Diving in a little deeper Slayton finished 9th in aDOT for receivers with over 80 targets (14.2) and 30th in Air Yards (3rd in rookie Air yards, 1197, Behind DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin). Daniel Jones is not shy from throwing the ball deep and in risky situations. If he can learn how to hold on to the ball and with Barkley bringing eight men in the box routinely, Slayton will continue to see those large aDOT numbers. He cemented himself as the second receiver in New York finishing 20th out of every wide receiver in yards per reception. He also cemented himself as a high end, middle round fantasy player heading into next year after finishing 21st in fantasy points per target (2.05) in his rookie season. If the Giants decide to draft an offensive line to help their running game and allow their quarterback to stay upright, Slayton will surpass 1,000 yards and be a very viable wide receiver two for your fantasy team.

6. Marquise Brown - Baltimore Ravens

The first wide receiver off the board in the NFL draft exploded out of the gate in week one. Scorching a very confused Dolphins defense for four receptions, 147 yards and two very long touchdowns. He was the bell of the ball. Brown followed his miraculous debut with 13 targets in week two. The world was his oyster after just two weeks in an NFL uniform. Then a few injuries caught up to Brown and he finished the year with just one more game with 80+ yards. He finished the season with seven touchdowns, a very strong showing. He’s still the number one receiver on a team that looks like an offensive power house. But he’s a very big boom or bust player. That’s why Brown settled outside the top five entering 2020. If you like to draft high risk, high reward players then Brown will be one of the top three for you. There is no shame in that method. On another note, good luck with your gray hair at age 25 if you play fantasy with boom or bust players. I will stick to my consistency method as everyone should. Brown has extreme fantasy potential as he finished 13th out of all wide receivers with nine red zone receptions. Lamar Jackson had a 123.2 quarterback rating when throwing to Brown which was good enough for sixth best in the NFL for any receiver and his 2.06 fantasy points per target placed him 19th among receivers. He did not outperform Darius Slayton or Diontae Johnson. Though I’m positive if Brown has an injury-free 2020 season, he will absolutely finish with better overall stats then both of the aforementioned receivers. Again, and I can’t emphasize this enough, he is a very high risk, high reward player every week of the season.

5. Deebo Samuel - San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl contending, Senior Bowl stand out, phenomenal playmaker, Deebo Samuel. What more can we say about this guy that hasn’t been said in 2020 already. We all saw his work ethic while we watched the 49ers shock the world week after week. Samuel is a great gadget player on a team that can draw up plays to fit him perfectly. Samuel had one of the lowest aDOT finishes last year. Concluding the season as the 25th worst receiver in aDOT (1.32) and third-lowest of receivers with 80+ targets. The two names lower than him were Cooper Kupp and Dede Westbrook. Showing aDOT is not everything, but it’s a great way to gauge how a player will be used. Samuel will continue to look for many drag routes and quick screens. Along with his versatility behind the line of scrimmage with reverses. Though he has one of the best play designers in the world on his side, he also is stuck in a very retro/futuristic team that will continue to live and die off the three-headed monster in the backfield. This means Samuel will have to earn his fantasy points after the catch. That seems like it’s the way Samuel wants it as he finished 2019 as the league's fifth-best receiver in yards after the catch and best among all rookies. He’s good enough to be number one on this list but the team he’s on, the nine drops he accrued and the quarterback that remains under center, unfortunately, drop him in the rankings.

4. Terry McLaurin - Washington Redskins

Scorin’ McLaurin, F1, Scary Terry, whatever it is you want to call Terry McLaurin is fine with me. However, we can all agree that players with three different nicknames in their debut season are destined for greatness. McLaurin was a fantasy stud along with being an immediate impact in the game. In the first three weeks of the season, McLaurin had 24 targets, six in the red zone, three touchdowns and 257 yards. He was the best rookie receiver to start the season. He played 100% of the offensive snaps in seven games for the Redskins last season which shows the amount of trust the Redskins organization has in him. McLaurin slowed down a little after his blazing start but still finished with 919 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and a 62.1 catch percentage. He led the entire league in contested catch rate at 68.4%. While not trying to overload you with stats, he finished 12th in the league in yards per target (9.9), 14th in yards per reception (15.8), 19th in yards per pass route (2.38), and the list goes on and on. In layman’s terms, McLaurin was an absolute stud. It was easy to see while watching him practice at the senior bowl and in OTAs. Though I don’t have a ton of confidence in Dwayne Haskins and McLaurin did his best work with Case Keenum under center, McLaurin will still be a viable option in fantasy. Yet he may be a little overpriced and may not replicate his stats. Watch out for an emerging Kelvin Harmon to take a few targets away and defenses to be adjusted and ready for McLaurin in the 2020 season.

3. Mecole Hardman - Kansas City Chiefs

Maybe the outlier of the top three for this article it’s time to buckle up folks, because it’s about to be the Mecole Hardman season in 2020. Projecting the Chiefs to get rid of the Clemson alum, Sammy Watkins, and not elect to re-sign Demarcus Robinson, all doors will open wide for Hardman. On the most explosive offense in the NFL with a plethora of targets leaving, Hardman should double if not triple his rookie targets. Hardman finished 2020 with a mere 26 receptions on 41 targets, but his six touchdowns and blazing speed put him on many highlight reels. Quickly imagine Tyreek Hill on one side, Travis Kelce in the middle, Mecole Hardman on the other side and Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball. If that doesn’t give you tingles, I don’t know what will. Hardman may not have lit up the stat sheet on a weekly basis, but his 20.7 yards per reception, along with his 13.1 yards per target was good enough to lead the entire league. He finished third in the league with 2.02 yards of separation per target, eluding to the fact that corners and safeties simply can’t keep up with him. The Chiefs will be able to spread the field out so much, I expect Hardman to be a top 30 receiver heading into next year. He may fall short of a thousand yards but should get double-digit touchdowns and be a consistent starter for your fantasy team in 2020.

2. D.K. Metcalf - Seattle Seahawks

Metcalf disappointed in one thing last year, his three-cone drill. After that, he put on a show time and time again. Finishing the season with 100 targets, 900 yards, and seven touchdowns. Add in the 18 red-zone targets he accumulated and you may have the best rookie receiver, consistently speaking. I fully believe this is just the first step in an amazing career. My number two rated receiver coming out of the draft last year was shockingly still on the board when the Seahawks went to hand in their pick in the second round. Metcalf asked why they waited so long and much like the entire world, Pete Carroll couldn’t answer. I often question why every team would let this guy slip so far and it’s beyond me. Metcalf finished 16th in yards per reception (15.5) and 25th in air yards (1,296). He’s in one of the best situations for a receiver having Russell Wilson tossing up the rock to him. Lockett is still in town, but that will not affect Metcalf’s production due to his speed, muscles, and smarts. Thus earning Metcalf the first look from Wilson on nearly every play moving forward. Metcalf will accumulate 1,000 yards this upcoming season and will do it in dramatic fashion, tossing corners around as if he was Thanos. Metcalf will see even more explosive numbers if the Seahawks can upgrade their offensive line which will start a snowball effect through the team. It’ll help them reestablish their run game, giving Wilson better windows downfield and eventually turn into a monstrous 2020 season for Metcalf.

1. A.J. Brown - Tennessee Titans

Was there anyone in the league who finished their season better than A.J. Brown? Maybe Patrick Mahomes. Still A.J. Brown started out on the hot side of things grabbing 100 yards in week one and 94 yards plus two touchdowns in week four. Then we saw a lull during the Mariota to Tannehill swap. Once the ex-receiver, Ryan Tannehill, settled in at quarterback, Brown became a superstar. Averaging over 100 yards per game and a touchdown over his final six games. He was the only rookie to surpass the 1,000 receiving yard mark (1,051) on just 84 targets and 52 receptions. Brown finished second in the league in yards per pass route (3.46), yards per target (12.5), fantasy points per target (2.58) and fantasy points per pass route (0.71). He finished third in the league in yards per reception (20.2) and sixth in the league in yards after catch (447). QBs that targeted Brown finished with a combined 132.5 QB rating when targeting Brown, and that includes the trash man Mariota. I can spit these jaw-dropping stats at you all day, but since you’ve made it to the end of this article there’s really only one thing you need to know. A.J. Brown was the best rookie receiver and will be the best sophomore receiver. Defensive coordinators will scheme to stop him and still fail. If the Titans do the smart thing of resigning Tannehill and tagging Derrick Henry, there’s no doubt in my mind Brown won’t surpass his rookie stats. Give him more than eight red-zone targets and we could see Brown crack the top ten receiver list.